Bracket Breakdown: Navigating the Powerhouses and Cinderellas of Women's March Madness

It’s March, which in the world of sports means only one thing: March Madness. Whether you’ve been following every matchup this season or just admiring Paige Bueckers’ GQ photoshoot, it’s never too late to tune in to catch the most exciting basketball of the college season.

Many people wondered how college hoops would fare after Caitlin Clark left Iowa for the WNBA. Clark was responsible for huge viewership bumps and sellout crowds, and there was a general consensus that people would stop watching once Caitlin wasn’t there to sink her signature threes. But with the mega superstar absent new players and rivalries have emerged stronger than ever, and viewership for the regular season is actually up 3% from the 2023-2024 season.

It’s been a crazy season with rankings changing every week: the parity has never been stronger in the women’s game. But as the tournament approaches we know the question you all want the answer to: how should I fill out my women’s March Madness bracket?

When it comes to filling out a women’s bracket, here are our tips:

1. When it comes to the women’s game, there are fewer upsets than the men’s. Although the days of the UConn women’s absolute dynasty are over, there still remain a smaller handful of powerhouse schools that continue to recruit the top talent. 
2. There are an average of 4 upsets per year in the women’s tournament, so as you pick your upsets keep that number(ish) in mind!
3. The technical definition of an upset is a team winning over an opponent ranked 5 spots or higher above them. Most of the upsets are going to happen in the first round, and, historically, 11 seeds are typically a good choice to make a Cinderella run. 

In general, the consensus among coaches, fans and media is that our national champion will be one of 6 teams: South Carolina, UConn, Texas, UCLA, USC and Notre Dame. So, as you make your picks, you’re probably best off choosing some combo of these teams as your Final Four. 

So. To help you pick, here’s the lowdown on the top dogs:

South Carolina

It would be impossible to improve on the season that South Carolina had last year, winning the national championship after not losing a single game. But, despite some losses this year, South Carolina is still on the hunt for the repeat. With a convincing win over Texas, a team who handed them one of their midseason losses, South Carolina recently claimed their ninth SEC championship and showed they still have what it takes to go all the way in the tournament. 

Key Player: Chloe Kitts

Junior forward Chloe Kitts has had to step up after Ashlyn Watkins suffered a season-ending ACL tear in January. Since then, she’s been doing it all for the Gamecocks, earning SEC tournament MVP and shooting over 53% on the season. The SC guards’ play is highlight after highlight, but Kitts will need to have an MVP tournament to take care of business inside. 

UConn

It will be the last season for superstar Paige Bueckers, who is the predicted #1 seed in the WNBA draft in April. It’s no secret Bueckers is hoping to add a championship to her college resume, and the Huskies just might all be healthy enough at the same time to pull it off. Although Connecticut has an incredible 11 national championships to its name, they haven’t won it all since 2016. Perhaps the question mark over Connecticut is their schedule: they haven’t played as many top teams over the season as some of their other competitors, with the Big East conference lagging behind conferences like the Big10 and the SEC in terms of real players. 

Key Player: Sarah Strong

Although Azzi Fudd and Paige Bueckers are undoubtedly UConn’s stars, Sarah Strong is only a freshman this year, and she has been absolutely crucial to their success. She is leading the team in rebounds, steals and blocks, and laid down a double double to beat Creighton in the Big East tournament final. Without stellar play from her, UConn is vulnerable. 

Texas

At times this season Texas has looked unbeatable, with weeks at the top of the AP rankings. However, critics have pointed out that they rely perhaps over-heavily on their inside game, with one of the lowest 3 point shooting percentages in the league. Texas is 9th from the bottom in 3 pt% of all NCAA D1 programs. When matched up against teams who have 3 point shooting guards galore, it’s going to be hard to go all the way without a true weapon on the outside. 

Key Player: Madison Booker

I wanted to try to choose some under the radar players for the key player, but Texas’ fortunes go hand in hand with Madison Booker’s. We saw this recently when South Carolina was able to contain Madison in the SEC championship, and so created a path towards avenging their earlier season loss. She’s a great player, but she needs to be exceptional for Texas to be crowned. 

UCLA

UCLA has had a breakthrough year. They earned the number 1 spot in the AP ranking for the first time in program history this season, and, by beating USC in the Big10 tournament, they’ve shown that their form is peaking at the right time. Kiki Rice’s star continues to rise, and Lauren Betts has looked more and more comfortable on the inside. UCLA doesn’t have as much experience as some of the other programs with deep runs into the tournament, but perhaps they can play with a nothing to lose mentality and shake things up. 

Key Player: Gabriela Jaquez

We all know Kiki Rice and Lauren Betts, but junior guard Gabriela Jaquez has shown maturity and patience on the floor that will be key to an inexperienced team making a run for the natty. She’s shooting over 30% from 3 this season and has a 54% field goal percentage. She’s efficient and coolheaded, and, if she can have some big games, will really take UCLA to the next level.

USC

Playing behind the jaw dropping season of likely player of the year Juju Watkins, USC has a real shot at the championship this year. Juju has averaged over 24 points this season, and is shooting over 30% from 3. Talia van Oelhoffen and Kiki Iriafen were big offseason additions, and, for the most part, the team has been firing on all cylinders. However, there have been some question marks, especially when it comes to defense. For instance, Iowa upset USC earlier in the season: if you can’t guard Sydney Olsen in February, you’re going to have a hard time slowing down Paige Bueckers in March. 

Key Player: Kiki Iriafen

Kiki Iriafen transferred to USC from Stanford after the dissolution of the Pac-12, and she has been the piece USC was missing. She’s averaging over 18 points per game and leads the team in rebounds, and has shown she can adapt quickly to different defenses. On a personal note, Kiki will definitely be looking to raise her draft stock as she gets ready to enter the WNBA draft in April, where she is predicted to be a first round pick. 

Notre Dame

Notre Dame, like Texas, has had flashes of pure brilliance this season. The double headed threat of Hannah Hidalgo and Olivia Miles has been a highlight reel all year long. Although they’ve stumbled a bit in the latter part of the season, they have wins over USC, UConn and Texas under their belts this season. If this young team can settle down in March, they have shown that they have the talent to take down the biggest names in the game. 

Key Player: Sonia Citron

Let’s hear it for the players who get back on defense. Notre Dame’s offense will take care of itself, but they need to do a better job defending. Senior guard Sonia Citron plays on both sides of the ball effectively and efficiently, and is an experienced piece for the young Notre Dame squad. Notre Dame needs all cylinders firing, and getting some excellent minutes from Sonia will help turn the tide on the slump they’ve been in. 

Here are some of our picks for underdogs and upsets:

Iowa

In the post CC era, Iowa’s still got it. With a win over USC and narrow losses to UCLA and Ohio State, who knows what will happen?

TCU

You might be saying TCWho? With some big offseason moves, TCU is actually a real contender. The reason? Hailey. Van. Lith. 

Mar 9, 2025; Greensboro, NC, USA; Duke Blue Devils head coach Kara Lawson is lifted by teammates after winning the game against NC State Wolfpack at First Horizon Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Cory Knowlton-Imagn Images

Duke

The Blue Devils just beat Notre Dame and NC State on their way to the ACC championship. 

Tennessee

It’s a new era in Tennessee under head coach Kim Caldwell, and don’t forget the Lady Vols started the season 7–0. Flying under the radar might be the key to success!

Michigan

Freshmen Syla Swords and Olivia Olson have been tearing it up in Michigan. With nothing to lose, this young team might make some big waves in March. 

Wondering who your pick should be to win it all? 

Your pick is UConn if…

… you’re all about tradition. You’re a big fan of Sue Bird and Breanna Stewart and Diana Taurasi and all the other UConn greats, and want to see Geno Auriemma lead his team to a mind boggling 12th national championship. (Tennessee has the second most with 8.) 

Your pick is South Carolina if…

…you’re all about the rising dynasty, and it’s important to you to see black female representation at the top! You love a little flashy play on the court and haute couture fashion on the sidelines, and you like seeing a team where any one player can be the hero of the night. 

Your pick is Texas if…

…you love gritty basketball, and a team who has more than one superstar on the roster. You’re excited to see a new powerhouse rise, and you’re curious to see if a team with one of the worst 3 point percentages in the whole NCAA could pull off a natty: it just might change everything. 

Your pick is UCLA if…

…you’re looking to make history and you want to see a team win who doesn’t have an NCAA title banner hanging in their gym. You love an underdog (of the top dogs) story and you want to make a little March Magic. 

Your pick is USC if…

…you’re a vintage guy/gal looking for a comeback to your former glory days. USC was the first team to win back to back championships with Cheryl Miller in the 1980s, but they haven’t won a natty since. You also love a superstar, and hope that Juju Watkins gets to raise the national championship trophy (but without the matching hat, of course). 

Your pick is Notre Dame if…

You love guard play, and it’s important to you to see black female representation in the head coaching role. Notre Dame has been known as “guard university” for a long time, producing dazzling ball handlers like Arike Ogunbowale, Skylar Diggins-Smith, Jackie Young and Jewell Loyd. After the departure of the legendary Muffet McGraw, you want to see head coach Niele Ivey put her name in the record books alongside her young stars.

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